Ecuador EMBI is fairly priced at 535 bp (fair 579 bp).
The EMBI tightened 17 bp over the last 6 months (506 → 488 bp). Last month it widened another 79 bp. Last month’s move was led by US high-yield spreads (+118 bp, wider); USD broad (+41 bp, wider); the terms-of-trade gap (+20 bp, wider). Versus the graph fair-value, the print is in line with the macros.
US high-yield spreads widened, which typically widens the EMBI spread.
USD broad increased, which typically widens the EMBI spread.
Current EMBI
535 bp (2026-10-15)
Macro fair value
579 bp (month-end 2026-09-30)
Rich / cheap
fair
Gap (current − fair)
-44 bp (-0.408σ)
Month-end residual
-90 bp
Residual σ
107 bp
In-sample R²
0.945
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.
Parent
Δ last month
Contrib bp
Typical print lag (d)
us_hy_oas (t)
0.490
+118.3
0
dxy (t)
2.401
+40.5
0
tot_gap (t)
0.000
+20.1
45
tot (t)
0.000
+0.0
45
debt_gap (t)
0.000
+0.0
35
current_account (t)
0.000
+0.0
25
Has EMBI had time to trade the prints?
Input
Est. release
Traded after print?
Days since
us_hy_oas
2026-09-30
yes
15
tot
2026-11-14
pending
-30
tot_gap
2026-11-14
pending
-30
dxy
2026-09-30
yes
15
debt_gap
2026-11-04
pending
-20
current_account
2026-10-25
pending
-10
Monthly DAG
Narrative edges (strongest first)
From
To
Lag
β (z)
Child R²
public_debt_gdp
→
debt_gap
t
+1.000
-3.051
nominal_deficit
→
primary_balance
t
+0.748
0.531
copper
→
tot_gap
t
+0.720
-161.561
tot_gap
→
current_account
t
+0.617
0.424
current_account
→
reserves
t
+0.608
0.238
exports_growth
→
current_account
t
+0.557
0.424
copper
→
exports_growth
t
+0.515
-36.635
copper
→
tot
t
+0.506
-1026.288
tot_gap
→
primary_balance
t
+0.428
0.531
dxy
→
embi_bra
t
+0.426
-1.328
primary_balance
→
embi_bra
t
+0.411
-1.328
tot
→
embi_bra
t
-0.383
-1.328
tot
→
exports_growth
t
+0.382
-36.635
tot
→
current_account
t
+0.354
0.424
public_debt_gdp
→
embi_bra
t
+0.285
-1.328
debt_gap
→
embi_bra
t
+0.285
-1.328
reserves
→
reserves_growth
t
+0.264
0.172
primary_balance
→
public_debt_gdp
t
+0.247
-0.604
primary_balance
→
debt_gap
t
+0.247
-3.051
nominal_deficit
→
public_debt_gdp
t
+0.228
-0.604
tot
→
primary_balance
t
+0.178
0.531
us_hy_oas
→
embi_bra
t
+0.160
-1.328
current_account
→
reserves_growth
t
-0.145
0.172
current_account
→
embi_bra
t
-0.125
-1.328
tot_gap
→
embi_bra
t
-0.089
-1.328
reserves_growth
→
embi_bra
t
-0.085
-1.328
tot
→
reserves
t
+0.046
0.238
copper
→
embi_bra
t
-0.029
-1.328
ΔEMBI engine (holdout score)
Ridge on ΔEMBI: 1 risk (HY or VIX or S&P) + 1 rates/USD + 1 commodity
+ 1 local + 1 stock. Ranked by holdout R², not quintile lift.
Best: theory|lags=[0, 1, 2] · parents: us_hy_oas, dxy, tot, reserves_growth, primary_balance
· 182 train / 20 test through 2026-10-31.
