Fulltext news themes (desk context) and a monthly macro fair-value graph.
On the theme side (fulltext clustering for desk context), the latest window shows 58 emerging theme rows, 18 accelerating, 9 decelerating. Notable emerging themes include Government Debt in Costa Rica Set to Rise Through 2031 (CRI); Earthquake in Panama Causes Significant…
8 of 15 look rich/very rich vs macro fair value, 2 cheap, 5 fair. Tightest vs fair: Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador. Widest: Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay.
Cheap = spread wide vs fair value. Rich = spread tight vs fair value. Theme clusters are desk context; they do not enter the valuation graph.
| Country | Segment | Last EMBI (bp) | Valuation | Gap vs fair (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile CHL | IG | 95 | Rich | -5 |
| Mexico MEX | IG | 213 | Fair | -6 |
| Panama PAN | IG | 126 | Rich | -27 |
| Peru PER | IG | 114 | Rich | -6 |
| Uruguay URY | IG | 77 | Cheap | +9 |
| Brazil BRA | HY | 161 | Very rich | -38 |
| Colombia COL | HY | 217 | Rich | -37 |
| Costa Rica CRI | HY | 142 | Rich | -10 |
| Dominican Republic DOM | HY | 181 | Fair | -7 |
| Guatemala GTM | HY | 127 | Very rich | -31 |
| Paraguay PRY | HY | 114 | Fair | -3 |
| Argentina ARG | Distressed | 624 | Very cheap | +319 |
| Bolivia BOL | Distressed | 498 | Fair | -77 |
| Ecuador ECU | Distressed | 535 | Fair | -44 |
| El Salvador SLV | Distressed | 293 | Rich | -43 |
Chile EMBI looks rich at 95 bp vs fair 100 bp (-5 bp tight).
Mexico EMBI is fairly priced at 213 bp (fair 219 bp).
Panama EMBI looks rich at 126 bp vs fair 153 bp (-27 bp tight).
Peru EMBI looks rich at 114 bp vs fair 121 bp (-6 bp tight).
Uruguay EMBI looks cheap at 77 bp vs fair 67 bp (+9 bp wide).
Brazil EMBI looks very rich at 161 bp vs fair 199 bp (-38 bp / -2.5σ tight).
Colombia EMBI looks rich at 217 bp vs fair 254 bp (-37 bp tight).
Costa Rica EMBI looks rich at 142 bp vs fair 153 bp (-10 bp tight).
Dominican Republic EMBI is fairly priced at 181 bp (fair 188 bp).
Guatemala EMBI looks very rich at 127 bp vs fair 159 bp (-31 bp / -1.8σ tight).
Paraguay EMBI is fairly priced at 114 bp (fair 117 bp).
Argentina EMBI looks very cheap at 624 bp vs fair 304 bp (+319 bp / 1.8σ wide).
Bolivia EMBI is fairly priced at 498 bp (fair 575 bp).
Ecuador EMBI is fairly priced at 535 bp (fair 579 bp).
El Salvador EMBI looks rich at 293 bp vs fair 336 bp (-43 bp tight).