ECU · Distressed
Ecuador
Last EMBI
418 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
411 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 403–419 bp
DAG valuation
Fair
Ecuador EMBI is fairly priced at 418 bp (fair 401 bp).
TFT forecast
Segment model: Distressed. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 69.0% | own-spread momentum (widening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 18.9% | global EMBI wider · VIX risk tone |
| Local Macro | 3.2% | local FX · local CB calendar |
| Sentiment | 8.9% | news volume · bond-theme share |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
fair
Ecuador EMBI is fairly priced at 418 bp (fair 401 bp).
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
- USD broad decreased, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
| Current EMBI | 418 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 401 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | +17 bp (0.2σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.