TFT · +3 business days
9 tighter · 2 wider · 4 flat
Tightening: Panama, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic. Widening: Mexico, Argentina.
News themes
Desk context only
On the theme side (fulltext clustering for desk context — not a TFT input), the latest window shows 3 emerging theme rows, 17 accelerating, 15 decelerating. Notable emerging themes include Russian recruiter apprehended for recruiting Panamanians to fight in ……
Valuation DAG
Rich / cheap vs fair
5 of 15 look rich/very rich vs macro fair value, 3 cheap, 7 fair. Tightest vs fair: El Salvador, Bolivia, Colombia. Widest: Argentina, Ecuador, Uruguay.
Cheap = spread wide vs fair value. Rich = spread tight vs fair value. TFT point estimates are converted to basis points (model stores spread points). Theme clusters do not enter the TFT.
Universe
| Country | Segment | Last EMBI (bp) | TFT +3d (bp) | vs last | DAG | Gap vs fair (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile CHL | IG | 90 | 90 | +0 bp | Fair | +1 |
| Mexico MEX | IG | 200 | 202 | +3 bp wider | Fair | +12 |
| Panama PAN | IG | 121 | 119 | -2 bp tighter | Rich | -13 |
| Peru PER | IG | 109 | 110 | +1 bp | Fair | +1 |
| Uruguay URY | IG | 68 | 67 | -1 bp | Very cheap | +14 |
| Brazil BRA | HY | 175 | 174 | -1 bp | Fair | +5 |
| Colombia COL | HY | 200 | 197 | -3 bp tighter | Rich | -26 |
| Costa Rica CRI | HY | 128 | 124 | -4 bp tighter | Rich | -19 |
| Dominican Republic DOM | HY | 159 | 156 | -4 bp tighter | Fair | -2 |
| Guatemala GTM | HY | 111 | 109 | -2 bp tighter | Rich | -19 |
| Paraguay PRY | HY | 107 | 106 | -2 bp tighter | Cheap | +10 |
| Argentina ARG | Distressed | 503 | 511 | +8 bp wider | Cheap | +114 |
| Bolivia BOL | Distressed | 454 | 447 | -7 bp tighter | Fair | -32 |
| Ecuador ECU | Distressed | 418 | 411 | -7 bp tighter | Fair | +17 |
| El Salvador SLV | Distressed | 272 | 270 | -2 bp tighter | Very rich | -58 |
Countries
CHL · Investment Grade Fair
Chile
Chile EMBI is fairly priced at 90 bp (fair 90 bp).
MEX · Investment Grade Fair
Mexico
Mexico EMBI is fairly priced at 200 bp (fair 187 bp).
PAN · Investment Grade Rich
Panama
Panama EMBI looks rich at 121 bp vs fair 134 bp (-13 bp tight).
PER · Investment Grade Fair
Peru
Peru EMBI is fairly priced at 109 bp (fair 108 bp).
URY · Investment Grade Very cheap
Uruguay
Uruguay EMBI looks very cheap at 68 bp vs fair 55 bp (+14 bp / 1.7σ wide).
BRA · High Yield Fair
Brazil
Brazil EMBI is fairly priced at 175 bp (fair 170 bp).
COL · High Yield Rich
Colombia
Colombia EMBI looks rich at 200 bp vs fair 226 bp (-26 bp tight).
CRI · High Yield Rich
Costa Rica
Costa Rica EMBI looks rich at 128 bp vs fair 147 bp (-19 bp tight).
DOM · High Yield Fair
Dominican Republic
Dominican Republic EMBI is fairly priced at 159 bp (fair 161 bp).
GTM · High Yield Rich
Guatemala
Guatemala EMBI looks rich at 111 bp vs fair 130 bp (-19 bp tight).
PRY · High Yield Cheap
Paraguay
Paraguay EMBI looks cheap at 107 bp vs fair 97 bp (+10 bp wide).
ARG · Distressed Cheap
Argentina
Argentina EMBI looks cheap at 503 bp vs fair 389 bp (+114 bp wide).
BOL · Distressed Fair
Bolivia
Bolivia EMBI is fairly priced at 454 bp (fair 486 bp).
ECU · Distressed Fair
Ecuador
Ecuador EMBI is fairly priced at 418 bp (fair 401 bp).
SLV · Distressed Very rich
El Salvador
El Salvador EMBI looks very rich at 272 bp vs fair 330 bp (-58 bp / -1.6σ tight).