BOL · Distressed
Bolivia
Last EMBI
454 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
447 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 429–464 bp
DAG valuation
Fair
Bolivia EMBI is fairly priced at 454 bp (fair 486 bp).
TFT forecast
Segment model: Distressed. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 69.2% | own-spread momentum (widening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 18.8% | VIX risk-on ease · global EMBI wider |
| Local Macro | 3.1% | FX depreciation pressure · local CB calendar |
| Sentiment | 8.9% | news volume · bond-theme share |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
fair
Bolivia EMBI is fairly priced at 454 bp (fair 486 bp).
- The local exchange rate increased, which put downward pressure on the real exchange rate (REER), which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which put downward pressure on the REER gap vs trend, which typically widens the EMBI spread.
- USD broad decreased, which put downward pressure on the real exchange rate (REER), which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
| Current EMBI | 454 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 486 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | -32 bp (-0.1σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.