ARG · Distressed
Argentina
Last EMBI
503 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
511 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 496–528 bp
DAG valuation
Cheap
Argentina EMBI looks cheap at 503 bp vs fair 389 bp (+114 bp wide).
TFT forecast
Segment model: Distressed. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 70.2% | own-spread momentum (tightening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 18.0% | global EMBI wider · VIX risk-on ease |
| Local Macro | 3.0% | FX depreciation pressure · local CB calendar |
| Sentiment | 8.8% | news volume · bond-theme share |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
cheap
Argentina EMBI looks cheap at 503 bp vs fair 389 bp (+114 bp wide).
- Local equities fell, which put downward pressure on the local policy rate, which typically tightens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
- USD broad decreased, which put downward pressure on the local policy–Fed funds gap, which typically tightens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
| Current EMBI | 503 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 389 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | +114 bp (0.6σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.