PER · Investment Grade
Peru
Last EMBI
109 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
110 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 107–112 bp
DAG valuation
Fair
Peru EMBI is fairly priced at 109 bp (fair 108 bp).
TFT forecast
Segment model: Investment Grade. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 47.8% | own-spread momentum (widening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 39.4% | global EMBI tighter · VIX risk-off impulse |
| Local Macro | 3.9% | FX relief / firmer · local CB calendar |
| Sentiment | 8.9% | global sentiment · news volume |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
fair
Peru EMBI is fairly priced at 109 bp (fair 108 bp).
- The local exchange rate decreased, which put upward pressure on the local policy–Fed funds gap, which typically widens the EMBI spread.
- The S&P 500 rose, which put downward pressure on the local policy–Fed funds gap, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which put downward pressure on the local policy–Fed funds gap, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
| Current EMBI | 109 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 108 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | +1 bp (0.1σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.