SLV · Distressed
El Salvador
Last EMBI
272 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
270 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 265–275 bp
DAG valuation
Very rich
El Salvador EMBI looks very rich at 272 bp vs fair 330 bp (-58 bp / -1.6σ tight).
TFT forecast
Segment model: Distressed. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 69.4% | own-spread momentum (widening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 18.7% | global EMBI wider · VIX risk tone |
| Local Macro | 3.1% | local FX · local CB calendar |
| Sentiment | 8.9% | news volume · bond-theme share |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
very rich
El Salvador EMBI looks very rich at 272 bp vs fair 330 bp (-58 bp / -1.6σ tight).
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which typically widens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
| Current EMBI | 272 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 330 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | -58 bp (-1.6σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.