CRI · High Yield
Costa Rica
Last EMBI
128 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
124 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 121–128 bp
DAG valuation
Rich
Costa Rica EMBI looks rich at 128 bp vs fair 147 bp (-19 bp tight).
TFT forecast
Segment model: High Yield. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 48.1% | own-spread momentum (tightening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 39.5% | FOMC calendar · global EMBI tighter |
| Local Macro | 4.2% | local CB calendar · FX relief / firmer |
| Sentiment | 8.3% | news volume · global sentiment |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
rich
Costa Rica EMBI looks rich at 128 bp vs fair 147 bp (-19 bp tight).
- The S&P 500 rose, which put downward pressure on the local policy–Fed funds gap, which typically widens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
| Current EMBI | 128 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 147 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | -19 bp (-0.8σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.