PRY · High Yield
Paraguay
Last EMBI
107 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
106 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 103–109 bp
DAG valuation
Cheap
Paraguay EMBI looks cheap at 107 bp vs fair 97 bp (+10 bp wide).
TFT forecast
Segment model: High Yield. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 46.9% | own-spread momentum (tightening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 40.4% | FOMC calendar · global EMBI tighter |
| Local Macro | 4.4% | local CB calendar · FX relief / firmer |
| Sentiment | 8.3% | news volume · global sentiment |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
cheap
Paraguay EMBI looks cheap at 107 bp vs fair 97 bp (+10 bp wide).
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which put upward pressure on the local exchange rate, which typically tightens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
| Current EMBI | 107 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 97 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | +10 bp (0.6σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.