URY · Investment Grade
Uruguay
Last EMBI
68 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
67 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 66–69 bp
DAG valuation
Very cheap
Uruguay EMBI looks very cheap at 68 bp vs fair 55 bp (+14 bp / 1.7σ wide).
TFT forecast
Segment model: Investment Grade. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 47.6% | own-spread momentum (widening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 39.7% | global EMBI tighter · VIX risk-off impulse |
| Local Macro | 3.8% | FX depreciation pressure · local CB calendar |
| Sentiment | 8.9% | global sentiment · news volume |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
very cheap
Uruguay EMBI looks very cheap at 68 bp vs fair 55 bp (+14 bp / 1.7σ wide).
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which put upward pressure on the real exchange rate (REER), which typically tightens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
| Current EMBI | 68 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 55 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | +14 bp (1.7σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.