PAN · Investment Grade
Panama
Last EMBI
121 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
119 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 116–123 bp
DAG valuation
Rich
Panama EMBI looks rich at 121 bp vs fair 134 bp (-13 bp tight).
TFT forecast
Segment model: Investment Grade. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 46.6% | own-spread momentum (widening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 40.8% | global EMBI tighter · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Local Macro | 3.9% | local FX · local CB calendar |
| Sentiment | 8.8% | global sentiment · news volume |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
rich
Panama EMBI looks rich at 121 bp vs fair 134 bp (-13 bp tight).
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which typically widens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
| Current EMBI | 121 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 134 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | -13 bp (-0.5σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.