CHL · Investment Grade
Chile
Last EMBI
90 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
90 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 89–92 bp
DAG valuation
Fair
Chile EMBI is fairly priced at 90 bp (fair 90 bp).
TFT forecast
Segment model: Investment Grade. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 49.3% | own-spread momentum (widening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 37.9% | global EMBI tighter · VIX risk-off impulse |
| Local Macro | 3.7% | FX depreciation pressure · local CB calendar |
| Sentiment | 9.0% | global sentiment · news volume |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
fair
Chile EMBI is fairly priced at 90 bp (fair 90 bp).
- Global news sentiment increased, which put upward pressure on local equities, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
- The S&P 500 rose, which put upward pressure on local equities, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which put upward pressure on local equities, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
| Current EMBI | 90 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 90 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | +1 bp (0.1σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.