GTM · High Yield
Guatemala
Last EMBI
111 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
109 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 105–114 bp
DAG valuation
Rich
Guatemala EMBI looks rich at 111 bp vs fair 130 bp (-19 bp tight).
TFT forecast
Segment model: High Yield. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 47.8% | own-spread momentum (tightening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 39.7% | FOMC calendar · global EMBI tighter |
| Local Macro | 4.2% | local CB calendar · FX relief / firmer |
| Sentiment | 8.3% | news volume · global sentiment |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
rich
Guatemala EMBI looks rich at 111 bp vs fair 130 bp (-19 bp tight).
- USD broad decreased, which put upward pressure on the local policy–Fed funds gap, which typically widens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
| Current EMBI | 111 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 130 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | -19 bp (-1.1σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.