BRA · High Yield
Brazil
Last EMBI
175 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
174 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 171–177 bp
DAG valuation
Fair
Brazil EMBI is fairly priced at 175 bp (fair 170 bp).
TFT forecast
Segment model: High Yield. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 47.9% | own-spread momentum (tightening) · own EMBI level path |
| Global Macro | 39.6% | FOMC calendar · global EMBI tighter |
| Local Macro | 4.2% | local CB calendar · FX relief / firmer |
| Sentiment | 8.3% | news volume · global sentiment |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
fair
Brazil EMBI is fairly priced at 175 bp (fair 170 bp).
- The debt-to-GDP gap vs a healthy level widened, which put downward pressure on the local policy–Fed funds gap, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
- Global news sentiment increased, which put upward pressure on local equities, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
- The S&P 500 rose, which put upward pressure on local equities, which typically tightens the EMBI spread.
| Current EMBI | 175 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 170 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | +5 bp (0.4σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.