COL · High Yield
Colombia
Last EMBI
200 bp
2026-09-02
TFT +3d
197 bp
origin 2026-09-02 → +3d 2026-09-07 · band 192–203 bp
DAG valuation
Rich
Colombia EMBI looks rich at 200 bp vs fair 226 bp (-26 bp tight).
TFT forecast
Segment model: High Yield. Point is the +3 business-day median level. Drivers are encoder+decoder variable selection — not news clusters.
Forecast Drivers
Temporal attention (encoder −30d → −1d)
| Type | Attention | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Technicals | 47.0% | own-spread momentum (widening) · level path / mean-reversion setup |
| Global Macro | 40.3% | FOMC calendar · global EMBI tighter |
| Local Macro | 4.3% | local CB calendar · FX depreciation pressure |
| Sentiment | 8.4% | news volume · global sentiment |
Attention = country-latest encoder+decoder variable selection (rolled up). Summary = top TFT features for that group + recent panel moves. Themes/clusters are separate (do not feed the TFT).
News themes
Rolling BERTopic clusters for desk context. They do not feed the TFT.
Open full local news reportGlobal fulltextValuation DAG
rich
Colombia EMBI looks rich at 200 bp vs fair 226 bp (-26 bp tight).
- The REER gap vs trend widened, which put upward pressure on the local policy rate, which typically widens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
- The S&P 500 rose, which put upward pressure on the local policy rate, which typically widens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
- US high-yield spreads tightened, which put upward pressure on the local exchange rate, which typically widens the EMBI spread. That does not appear to have been incorporated into the current spread.
| Current EMBI | 200 bp |
|---|---|
| Macro fair value | 226 bp |
| Gap (current − fair) | -26 bp (-1.0σ) |
4 monthly print(s) may not yet have been tradable at the last EMBI date.